Despite the fact that weapons are necessary for conflicts, it remains unclear if weapons availability itself causes conflict. In this paper I used historical trade links and weapons shortage to pin-down the causal effect of weapons exports on internal conflict in the destination country. The results suggest that arms exporters have the ability to influence violence with their trade.

Even if stopping exports might only postpone violence until more weapons are found, the momentary reduced violence could open a window to facilitate negotiations for a peaceful resolution. 

Weapons and war: The effect of arms transfers on internal conflict.

Gallea, Q. (2023) Journal of Development Economics

Link to the paper

In this research we study the role of natural gas for the domestic and international distribution of power. Gas rents are not limited to producers but also accrue to key players occupying central position in the gas network. This paper shows that gas network centrality of a country increases substantially the ruler's grip on power as measured by leader turnover.

A main mechanism at work is the reluctance of connected gas trade partners to impose sanctions, meaning that bad behavior of gas-central leaders is tolerated for longer before being sanctioned. Overall, this reinforces the notion that fossil fuels are not just poison for the environment but also for political pluralism and healthy regime turnover.

Power in the Pipeline (2022) arXiv

Gallea, Q., Morelli, M., & Rohner, D.

Link to the paper

Globalization is routinely blamed for various ills, including fueling conflict in strategic locations. To investigate whether these accusations are well founded, we have built a database to assess any given location’s strategic importance for maritime trade.

We find that overall fighting is more frequent in strategic locations close to maritime choke points (e.g., straits or capes), but that booming world trade openness considerably reduces the risks of conflict erupting in such strategic locations. Our results have important policy implications for supranational coordination.

Globalization mitigates the risk of conflict caused by strategic territory.

Gallea, Q., & Rohner, D. (2021) PNAS

Link to the paper

Quantifying the effect of lockdowns is primordial for decision making. Lockdowns reduced the spread of the virus but have also numerous costs: economic, psychological, social, and potentially also other health related costs. Hence, in this research we quantified the effectiveness of the lockdowns to assess their benefit and compare to their costs.

Overall, we find that lockdowns were effective, reduced mobility, and saved about 3.6 million lives in developed countries within 100 days after they were implemented. Measures taken within countries (rather than border closure) and partial lockdowns (instead of more constraining measures) were the most effective. However, in developing countries, where the opportunity cost of staying home might be too high for people to comply, lockdowns were ineffective.

Managing Pandemics: How to Contain COVID-19 Through Internal and External Lockdowns and Their Release

Bonardi, J. P., Gallea, Q., Kalanoski, D., & Lalive, R. (2023). Mangement Science

Link to the paper

In Spring 2020, COVID-19 led to an unprecedented halt in public and economic life across the globe. In an otherwise tragic time, this provides a unique natural experiment to investigate the environmental impact of such a (temporary) 'de-globalization'. Here, we estimate the medium-run impact of a battery of COVID-19 related lockdown measures on air quality across 162 countries, going beyond the existing short-run estimates from a limited number of countries.

We find that domestic and international lockdown measures overall led to a decline in PM2.5 pollution by 45% and 35%, respectively. We show that some country trajectories are much more appealing than others. Our results have important policy implications and highlight the potential to 'build back better' a sustainable economy where pollution can be curbed in a less economically costly way than during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Saving the world from your couch: the heterogeneous medium-run benefits of COVID-19 lockdowns on air pollution

Bonardi, J. P., Gallea, Q., Kalanoski, D., Lalive, R., Madhok, R., Noack, F., ... & Sonno, T. (2021) Environmental Research Letters

Link to the paper

This paper illustrates how generative AI could give opportunities for big productivity gains but also opens up questions about the impact of these new powerful technologies on the way we work and share knowledge. More specifically, we explore how ChatGPT changed a fundamental aspect of coding: problem-solving. To do so, we exploit the effect of the sudden release of ChatGPT on the 30th of November 2022 on the usage of the largest online community for coders: Stack Overflow.

We find a significant drop in the number of questions. In addition, the questions are better documented after the release of ChatGPT. Finally, we find evidence that the remaining questions are more complex. These findings suggest not only productivity gains but also a fundamental change in the way we work where routine inquiries are solved by AI allowing humans to focus on more complex tasks.

From Mundane to Meaningful: AI's Influence on Work Dynamics

Gallea, Q. (2023) arXiv

Link to the paper